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Bridging Predictive Uncertainty and Safe Action: Sample-Conditioned Differentiable Planning for Autonomous Driving

Complex, dynamic, and interactive driving environments pose significant challenges for autonomous driving, primarily due to the pervasive uncertainty of surrounding traffic. A fundamental bottleneck in current systems is the disconnect between highly expressive uncertainty modeling and interpretable, safe motion planning. In this paper, we propose a novel sample-conditioned differentiable planning framework that bridges this gap by explicitly incorporating diffusion-generated future trajectories into the optimization process. Rather than compressing predictions into a single deterministic future or relying on black-box end-to-end architectures, our approach leverages a conditional diffusion model to generate a diverse set of plausible future scenarios. Crucially, these samples are directly fed into a differentiable planner, which explicitly mitigates predictive uncertainty via an empirical Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) tail-risk constraint. This allows the planner to optimize a physically interpretable trajectory that is robust to rare yet safety-critical interactions. Furthermore, we introduce a directed graph representation for scene context that yields substantial improvements in both predictive effectiveness and computational efficiency. Validated through extensive open-loop and closed-loop evaluations on the Waymo Open Motion and Argoverse 2 datasets, our framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in safety, efficiency, and ride comfort.

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