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Building Real-time Awareness of Out-of-distribution in Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Vehicles

Trajectory prediction describes the motions of surrounding moving obstacles for an autonomous vehicle; it plays a crucial role in enabling timely decision-making, such as collision avoidance and trajectory replanning. Accurate trajectory planning is the key to reliable vehicle deployments in open-world environment, where unstructured obstacles bring in uncertainties that are impossible to fully capture by training data. For traditional machine learning tasks, such uncertainties are often addressed reasonably well via methods such as continual learning. On the one hand, naively applying those methods to trajectory prediction can result in continuous data collection and frequent model updates, which can be resource-intensive. On the other hand, the predicted trajectories can be far away from the true trajectories, leading to unsafe decision-making. In this paper, we aim to establish real-time awareness of out-of-distribution in trajectory prediction for autonomous vehicles. We focus on the challenging and practically relevant setting where the out-of-distribution is deceptive, that is, the one not easily detectable by human intuition. Drawing on the well-established techniques of sequential analysis, we build real-time awareness of out-of-distribution by monitoring prediction errors using the quickest change point detection (QCD). Our solutions are lightweight and can handle the occurrence of out-of-distribution at any time during trajectory prediction inference. Experimental results on multiple real-world datasets using a benchmark trajectory prediction model demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.

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