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Control-Augmented Autoregressive Diffusion for Data Assimilation

Despite advances in test-time scaling and diffusion finetuning, guidance for Auto-Regressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs) remains underexplored. We introduce an amortized framework that augments a pretrained ARDM with an offline-trained controller. By previewing future rollouts, the controller learns stepwise corrections that anticipate observations under a terminal-cost objective, yielding a reusable policy for guided generation. Motivated by a stochastic optimal control view of ARDM trajectories, our method injects small controls within each denoising sub-step while staying close to the pretrained dynamics. We study this approach for dataassimilation (DA) in chaotic spatiotemporal partial differential equations (PDEs), where existing methods are often computationally expensive and susceptible to forecast drift under sparse observations. At inference, DA becomes a feed-forward rollout with on-the-fly corrections, achieving an order-of-magnitude speedup over strong diffusion-based baselines. Across two canonical PDEs and a compact ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) pilot spanning six observation regimes, our method consistently improves stability and accuracy over state-of-the-art alternatives, with similar improvements observed in a larger-scale GenCast study.

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