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Lightweight, Uncertainty-Aware Conformalized Visual Odometry

Data-driven visual odometry (VO) is a critical subroutine for autonomous edge robotics, and recent progress in the field has produced highly accurate point predictions in complex environments. However, emerging autonomous edge robotics devices like insect-scale drones and surgical robots lack a computationally efficient framework to estimate VO's predictive uncertainties. Meanwhile, as edge robotics continue to proliferate into mission-critical application spaces, awareness of model's the predictive uncertainties has become crucial for risk-aware decision-making. This paper addresses this challenge by presenting a novel, lightweight, and statistically robust framework that leverages conformal inference (CI) to extract VO's uncertainty bands. Our approach represents the uncertainties using flexible, adaptable, and adjustable prediction intervals that, on average, guarantee the inclusion of the ground truth across all degrees of freedom (DOF) of pose estimation. We discuss the architectures of generative deep neural networks for estimating multivariate uncertainty bands along with point (mean) prediction. We also present techniques to improve the uncertainty estimation accuracy, such as leveraging Monte Carlo dropout (MC-dropout) for data augmentation. Finally, we propose a novel training loss function that combines interval scoring and calibration loss with traditional training metrics--mean-squared error and KL-divergence--to improve uncertainty-aware learning. Our simulation results demonstrate that the presented framework consistently captures true uncertainty in pose estimations across different datasets, estimation models, and applied noise types, indicating its wide applicability.

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